If something can't go up on good news, well..
That is very much the case for oil as even the recent news of the re-opening in China isn't enough to lift it from the doldrums after the retreat since June this year. The double-top pattern from the October and November highs was the final straw before we see price tumble further this week, after OPEC+ decided to keep production quotas unchanged over the weekend here.
The story about a Russian oil price floor yesterday here didn't really provide much lasting relief for oil prices and that is arguably a big tell on how market sentiment is faring at the moment.
It's a tough one to square up as the technical picture is outweighing the fundamental landscape in the oil market. You would think China re-opening, which is perhaps the biggest boost for oil demand, would be enough of a boon to lift the mood for buyers.
But looking at the chart above, the $70 mark is the likely technical destination for oil now before potentially revisiting the late 2021 lows around $62.50 to $64.50.
I reckon it will have come down to OPEC+ really signaling something significant to really change up the landscape in the oil market moving forward. There is also the case that the US needs to replenish its SPR and at these prices, they are seemingly attractive enough surely. That might play into additional demand but we'll see if there is any appetite to get that done in the weeks/months ahead.
For now, it looks like sellers are in control and are still flushing out long positions that have been caught hoping for a tighter market amid the shelving of Russian oil - which doesn't seem to have materialised.
