Adam posted on the uncertainty fuelled in the oil market after the OPEC+ statement:

ANZ's response summarises how much of the market is viewing the result of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday:

  • Crude oil jumped on reports that the OPEC+ alliance had agreed to a deeper 1mb/d cut to already lower production levels. However, prices failed to hold those gains amid a lack of clarity around the new agreement.
  • There was no group communique listing the individual changes to quotas. Each country announced its own reductions.
  • Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary 1mb/d cut through the first quarter of 2024. The absence of a comprehensive breakdown with only a select number of countries detailing their reduction failed to convince the market.
  • The lack of a published agreement also raises the prospect of some producers not adhering to their voluntary reductions. Nevertheless, if output is cut to the extent they promise, the crude oil market should remain tight.

On ANZ's point about:

  • the prospect of some producters not adhering to their voluntary reductions

Angola has already said no, its opening the taps:

Update, Asia taking the price nowhere:

oil update opec+ clarity 01 December 2023

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