The US PCE data came in as expected across all monthly and yearly measures and headline and core as well. The surprise was in the continuing claims which search to 1.927M. That was the highest since November 2021.
The market reaction is somewhat modest. Stocks remain higher with the Dow futures employing a gain of 250 points. The NASDAQ futures are employing a gain of 55 points while the S&P is holding onto a gain of 15.2 points.
US yields are up modestly. The two-year is up at 4.659% up 1.2 basis points. The 10-year yield is at 4.295% up 2.4 basis points. At the start of the US session, the 2-year yield was at 4.634%. While the 10-year was at 4.287%.
The USD moved lower initially, but has since rebounded:
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved up to 1.0949. At the price back above its 200-hour moving average of 1.09374. Earlier today, the EURUSD fell on the back of softer CPI data and took the price to the lowest level for the week at 1.0908. The current price is trading at 1.0930 back below the 200-hour moving average. Staying below is more bearish. The next key downside target is between 1.0878 and 1.0887. That area is home to a number of swing levels (see below numbered circles) and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the November 10 low.
USDJPY: The USDJPY fell to 147.18, but has since bounced back up to 147.65. The low price stayed above the rising 100-day moving average at 147.07. The high for the day is at 147.77 and is the next upside target. The high yesterday reached 147.90, and a swing area between 147.96 and 148.03 followed by the following 100-day moving average 148.159 are all upside targets.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved higher on the headlines, and then rotated back lower with the price moving back below the 100-hour MA at 1.26507 (blue line which is now close risk). The 38.2% of the last run higher (from the November 22 low) comes in at 1.26239 and is the next downside target followed by the 50% and rising 200 hour MA at 1.2590 area. The price of the GBPUSD has not been below the 200 hour Ms since November 14.
