There are some interesting comments out from Eurasia Group analyst Mujtaba Rahman today, citing 'senior EU officials'.
He said there is no appetite among European states for energy import bans, with the exception of Poland and Baltic states. That could change if there are chemical or nuclear weapons attacks but it's a high bar.
Interestingly, he notes that the x-factor is whether whether President Zelensky can keep mobilising global public opinion. That could force EU leaders to move much further on sanctions policy than they would like.
Before the outbreak of war, EU leaders had agreed on a playbook and set of sanctions for a Russian invasion like the one we're seeing. However the galvanization of anti-Russian sentiment has already pushed them well beyond that.
Rahman also lays out a possible case where some countries in the EU stop Russian oil and gas imports while others don't. However the overall mood is to pause and expand sanctions incrementally.
