nonfarm payrolls
- Consensus estimate +180K (range +94K to +265K)
- Private +160K
- January +517K
- February +311K
- March +236K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.6% vs 3.5% prior
- Participation rate prior 62.6%
- Prior underemployment U6 6.7%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.2% y/y vs +4.2% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.4 vs 34.4 prior
Here's the April jobs picture so far:
- ADP employment 296K vs 150K expected
- ISM manufacturing employment 50.2 vs 46.9 prior
- ISM services employment 50.8 vs 51.3
- Challenger Job Cuts +175.9% y/y vs +319.4% y/y prior
- Philly employment -0.2 vs -10.3 prior
- Empire employment -8.0 vs -10.1 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 246K vs 240K expected
Seasonally, there isn't much of a skew in April with 50% of headline prints above expectations in April and 46% below, according to BMO.
The banking drama should overshadow this report and I'm not convinced that a softer print will be much consolation for the market. Instead, it could trigger further fears about a hard landing. In any case, it should be a straight-forward trade for USD/JPY, which has been on a ride this week.
