- Consensus estimate +325K
- Private +325K
- April +428K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.5% vs 3.6% prior
- Participation rate consensus 62.2% prior
- Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.0%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +5.2% y/y vs +5.5% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.4% vs +0.3% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.6 vs 34.6 prior
Here's the May jobs story so far:
- ADP +128K vs +300K expected
- ISM services employment not yet released
- ISM manufacturing employment 49.6 vs 50.9 prior
- Philly employment 25.5 vs 41.4 prior
- Empire employment 14.0 vs 7.3 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 195K vs 197K exp
I don't see this as a particularly important report. A 50 bps hike from the Federal Reserve is baked in and there's no reasonable number here that could change that. Average hourly earnings is the detail to watch because a sharp rise in that beyond the 5.2% y/y expected could jar the Fed into a more-hawkish stance. We got a hint of that Wednesday from Daly as the talk about going beyond neutral if necessary ramps up.
