US nonfarm payrolls
What's expected:
- Consensus estimate +180K (range +100 to +275K)
- Private +158K
- October +150K
- Unemployment rate consensus estimate: 3.9% vs 3.9% prior
- Participation rate consensus 62.7% prior
- Prior underemployment U6 prior 7.2%
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% y/y vs +4.1% prior
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.2% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.3 vs 34.3 prior
November jobs so far:
- ADP report +103K vs +130K expected and +106K prior
- ISM services employment 50.7 vs 50.2 prior
- ISM manufacturing employment 45.8 vs 47.6 prior
- Challenger Job Cuts -40.8% y/y vs +8.8% prior
- Philly employment +0.8 vs +4.0 prior
- Empire employment -4.5 vs +3.1 prior
- Initial jobless claims survey week 211K vs 233K last month (was a five-week low)
Seasonally, the November jobs number has beat the consensus 52% of the time and missed 48% of the time, according to BMO while the unemployment rate has been higher than anticipated 12%, matched 42% and been lower 46% of the time.
