Below is a quick rundown of what markets are expecting from tomorrow's US jobs report:
- Headline NFP: 200k (prior 275k)
- Unemployment Rate: 3.9% (prior 3.9%)
- Average earnings MM: 0.3% (prior 0.1%)
- Average earnings YY: 4.1% (prior 4.3%)
NFP expectations
It's important to note that the employment data released throughout the week has been mostly better than expected or better than priors:
- ISM manufacturing employment index: 47.4 (prior 45.9)
- ISM services employment index: 48.5 (prior 48.0)
- ADP national employment: 184k vs 148k expected
That means that the whisper number for NFP tomorrow might be slightly higher than the 200k consensus estimate.
