Reuters: Bank of England to lift bank rate by 25 bps next week. GBPUSD tests May high.

A Reuters poll of 64 economists shows that all expect the Bank of England to lift the bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at their June 22 meeting (next Thursday).

• They also estimate that the bank rate is to peak at 5.0% in Q3. That was the same as May 31 poll.

Yesterday, the GBPUSD GBP/USD The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a The GBP/USD is the currency pair encompassing the United Kingdom’s currency, the British pound sterling (symbol £, code GBP), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one British pound. For example, when the GBP/USD is trading at 1.5000, it means 1 pound is equivalent to 1.5 dollars. The GBP/USD is the fourth most traded currency pair on the forex exchange market, giving it ample liquidity a Read this Term rose after better jobs data and hot wage data.

• In May, payrolls saw a change of 23k, compared to a decrease of 135k previously, which was revised to a 7k increase.
• The April ILO unemployment rate was reported at 3.8%, better than the expected 4.0%, and down from the previous 3.9%.
• Employment change for April stood at 250k, outperforming the expected 162k, and up from the prior 182k.

In terms of earnings,

• April's average weekly earnings Earnings A company’s earnings represent its profits or net benefits as a result of its operation.Earnings are the net benefits of a corporation's operation. Earnings can be calculated as EBIT, i.e. earnings before interest and taxes, and EBITDA, i.e. earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.Earnings are valuable tools for investors of company shares as they can often highlight a company’s financial standing and performance. Better performances can result in strengthened share price A company’s earnings represent its profits or net benefits as a result of its operation.Earnings are the net benefits of a corporation's operation. Earnings can be calculated as EBIT, i.e. earnings before interest and taxes, and EBITDA, i.e. earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.Earnings are valuable tools for investors of company shares as they can often highlight a company’s financial standing and performance. Better performances can result in strengthened share price Read this Term rose by 6.5%, higher than the expected 6.1% (3m/y) and up from the previously reported 5.8%, which was later revised to 6.1%.
• Average weekly earnings excluding bonus for April were reported at 7.2%, higher than the expected 6.9% (3m/y) and up from the prior 6.7%, which was revised to 6.8%.

With the US Fed likely on hold this month, the BOE policy expectation is good news for the GBPUSD.

Looking at the GBPUSD, it is testing the swing high from May 10 at 1.26790. The current price is trading at current session highs at 1.26806.

Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, a move above the 1.26798 level with momentum would have traders looking toward the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2021 high. That level comes in at 1.27605.