Richmond Fed
  • Prior month -14
  • Composite index -14 versus -10 estimatexx.
  • Services index 9 vs 3 last month
  • Manufacturing shipments -12 vs -8 last month

Other details:

  • Employment -10 vs -17 last month. Better but still negative.
  • Wages 17 vs 16 last month. Marginally higher.
  • Prices paid 2.48 vs 2.70 last month. Lower.
  • Prices received 2.07 vs 1.71 last month. Higher
  • New orders -19 vs -17 last month. Lower.
  • Backlog of orders -27 vs -14 last month. Lower
  • Capacity utilization -15 vs -11 last month. Lower
  • Capital expenditures zero vs -23 last month. Higher.
  • Services expenditure -20 vs -22 last month Higher but stil negative
  • Finished goods inventories 29 vs 17 last month. Higher inventories (weaker)
  • Raw materials inventory 13 vs 12 last month. Little changed
  • Equipment and software spending -1 vs -21 last month. Higher

Overall, the data is pointing to the downside but there is a longer term tilt higher if you look at the 3-month averages (in the charts) .

Looking at expectations 6 month forward:

  • Shipments 33 versus 22 last month
  • new orders 37 versus 35 last month.
  • Backlog of orders 10 versus eight last month.
  • Capacity utilization 25 versus 23 last month.
  • Capital expenditures -12 versus -6 last months.
  • Finished goods inventories seven versus four last month
  • raw material inventories one versus five last month.
  • Equipment and software spending -12 versus -10 last month.
  • Services expenditures -19 versus -18 last month
  • Employees -3 versus 4last month
  • prices paid 2.61 versus 2.72 last month
  • prices received 2.2 versus 1.4 last month
  • wages 51 versus 47 last month
Composite