Reuters reporting, citing a Société Générale note.
SocGen raised its S&P 500 price target for the end of 2023 to 4,750 from 4,300.
- in coming months, calls for a recession will be "deleted/delayed"
- "... we stay bullish near term."
- support for the S&P 500 coming from AI-driven investments and its also attractive against many other international equity markets, as "we have stagflation in Europe and disinflationary downturn in China."
"We believe the S&P 500 will be the ‘last man standing’, in terms of defending its returns"
- but, SSG still expect a U.S. recession as the "core scenario," even if delayed
Further out:
- target of 3,800 for Q2 of 2024
- expecting a "shock" to the index "likely driven by a contraction in U.S. consumer spending."
- by Q4 2024 back to 4,750
Among the negative risks cited by the firm is if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 5% or higher
- would push the S&P 500 back to 4,000
