S&P global November manufacturing PMI for November 47.6 versus 50.0 estimate

The S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMI for November 2022:

• Manufacturing PMI for 7.6 versus 50.0 expectations. Last month 50.4.
• Services PMI 46.1 versus 47.9 expectations. Last month 47.8.
• composite PMI 46.3 versus 48.2 last month

From S&P Global:

"November saw a solid contraction in business activity across the US private sector, according to latest ‘flash’ PMI™ data from S&P Global. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand."

They added on the composite index:

"The rate of contraction signalled for the composite output index was the sharpest since August and among the quickest since 2009. Demand conditions worsened as the fourth quarter progressed, with new orders across the private sector falling in November at the fastest pace since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020. With the exception of the early stages of the pandemic, the decrease in total new sales was the sharpest since 2009. Manufacturers and service providers alike recorded steeper declines in new business, with many firms stating that the impact of inflation and interest rates had led to greater hesitancy and postponements by customers in placing orders"

On the services PMI they said:

"The S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index posted 46.1 in November, down from 47.8 in October. Excluding the initial pandemic phase in the first half of 2020, the rate of decline was the second-fastest on record. Panellists often stated that the impact of inflation and interest rates on customer disposable income had dented demand conditions."

On the manufacturing PMI, they said:

"At 47.6, down from 50.4 in October, the S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI signalled a renewed decline in operating conditions at manufacturers in November. The deterioration in the health of the sector was solid and the first since June 2020."

Overall a weak report as note and bond yields moving to the downside.

• Two year yield is now down about three basis points or 4.482%
• 10 year yield is trading down 5.6 basis points 3.701%
• 30 years trading down 6.9 basis points at 3.758%

in the Forex, the:

• EURUSD is moving to a new session high and looks to test the topside of a swing area near 1.03657. Moving above would be more bullish and have traders looking toward the 200 day moving average at 1.03967
• GBPUSD is continuing its run to the upside and is testing the high price from last week at 1.20276. The 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading year comes in at 1.20499
• USDJPY has tumble to the downside and trades back below 140.00. It broke below the 100 hour moving average at 140.933, and the 200 hour moving average at 140.266. That 200 hour moving average is now close resistance and risk for sellers.

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