The S&P index dipped briefly below its close level from 2022 at 3839.85. The low price reached 3838.24 but has bounced back marginally. The current price is trading at 3842.46 down 76.86 points or -1.96%.

S&P index
S&P index dips briefly below the close from 2022

The S&P's price also dipped below Monday's closing level, reaching a new low for the year at 3,808.86. From a technical perspective, the 50% midpoint of the upward move from the October 13 low, currently at 3,843.51, is in focus. A decline below this 50% midpoint and the closing price from 2022 would shift the bias more towards the downside, with Monday's low and the 61.8% retracement at 3,760.45 serving as the next key downside targets.

If there is a silver lining for equities , the probability of no change in policy has increased to 59%, with a 41% chance of a 25 basis point cut. In addition, the peak Fed funds rate last Wednesday was at up at 5.72%, and it now stands nearly 100 basis points lower at 4.76%. By January 2024, expectations indicate that the Fed funds rate could drop to 3.7%.

For now, however, the negatives from those rate projections (mostly lower growth and financial risks) outweigh the benefits of the change in rate expectations.

/Inflation