The backlash against the swissie is continuing to play out in the aftermath of the SNB policy decision earlier today. The Swiss central bank hiked its policy rate by 75 bps, as expected, but markets had sought to price in a 100 bps move going into the decision.
That saw a quick surge lower in the franc, with EUR/CHF moving up from 0.9470 to 0.9600 before pulling higher now to 0.9700. After the BOJ, one has to wonder if the SNB also has a part to do with the latest move in the market today as the franc falls to its lowest since 12 September against the euro.
Now, after their policy shift in June, the SNB has been a key driver for the franc appreciation over the past few months in a fall from 1.0500 at the time to 0.9500 this week. One can argue that perhaps there is some scope for a retracement but on the balance of things, the landscape for EUR/CHF hasn't changed.
The question now is whether the SNB will keep following up on more aggressive rate hikes and I would point to their higher inflation forecasts today as being a suggestion that the likelihood remains high.
