Previewing the US CPI data due Wednesday.
- headline likely +0.3% m/m despite another notable gain in energy prices
- expect core inflation slowed to a "soft" 0.3% m/m pace after posting a third consecutive strong gain at 0.4% in March
- unrounded core CPI forecast at 0.27% m/m suggests larger risks for a dovish surprise to a rounded 0.2% increase
Retail sales also:
- expect retail sales to rise for a third consecutive month in April, opening the second quarter on a firm footing
- volatile auto and gasoline stations sales will likely provide a big boost to growth
- the control group also helping to juice the headline—though down vs March
- project sales in bars/restaurants—the report's only services component—to remain firm
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Earlier:
