The trade for the days ahead looks to be some unwinding of the 'Trump trade' we saw since Biden performed poorly in the debate a couple of weeks ago.
When the prospect of a Trump second term rose traders and investors focused on:
- the likely increase in US debt, fiscal and inflationary pressures
- stocks benefitting from Trump tax cut policies that were seen as lifting corporate profits still further
US President Joe Biden's exit from the presidential race on Sunday could prompt investors to unwind some of these trades. Indeed, US stocks already began discounting this with the dip last week.
The Democrat nomination is not yet decided, at this stage it looks like Harris vs. Trump, but until the Dem nomination its not a lock.
