Previews of the

CPI data for September :

BMO snippet:

  • we see several distinct potential outcomes
  • First, a consensus or lower headline and core-CPI prints that conform to the peak inflation narrative will be largely a non-event and contribute to the case for Fed credibility.
  • second scenario, CPI and Core-CPI surprise on the upside ... suggests the current 4.6% terminal projection doesn’t represent the ceiling of how far funds could be increased
  • third possible outcome would be a mixed report – headline/core out or underperforming in conflicting directions. Assuming the headline print isn’t paradigm-shifting versus consensus, we’ll err on the side of a traditional focus on the core measure for a directional bias for US rates. The August data (low headline, high core) is an archetype for our expectations should the mixed scenario emerge.
us cpi data 13 October 2022