A pair of charts have repeatedly been doing the rounds recently.
The first is the cost of a 30-year fixed US mortgage. Here are the numbers from Mortgage Daily News, which are the most up-to-date:
That's a double since the start of the year and is slamming the brakes on the housing market.
Layered onto that, are charts like this that highlight the rising monthly costs of buying a home.
There's a clear picture there and when you combine it with market pricing for the Fed to tighten to 3.75% and it's not good.
But is that the whole story?
Here's a chart you aren't seeing very often. It shows the spread between the 30-year Treasury yield against mortgage rates.
Moreover, given that this is priced off the lagging Freddie Mac number (5.78% vs Mortgage News Daily at 6.05%), we can add another 57 basis points to it. That puts the spread 132 basis points above the 10-year average.
In other words, there are some ugly things happening in the mortgage market right now (and that's a risk worth watching) but at some point, the spread will normalize and that puts 132 bps of easing into the pipeline. Said another way, in a normal market, the 30-year would be around 4.73%. That's not great, but it's not a sudden stop.
It's easier than ever to stoke fear in markets and that's a portion of what's happening at the moment. For sure, if the Fed keeps hiking and 30-year rates keep rising, there will be housing problems, but keep a clear view of both sides of the trade.
