Think of US inflation reports like a golf scorecard

The Fed made a hard pivot on inflation this summer with the plan to get it under control over roughly 18 months.

This is a good 'scorecard' to measure where inflation will be. It's from Bespoke.

Each month a reading of +0.2% roughly equates to 2-3% inflation, so that's 'par'. Birdies are +0.1% and bogeys are +0.3%. The past two months have been 0% (an eagle!) and +0.1% but those came with some big help from tumbling gasoline prices.

The good news is that some other items will begin helping inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term as well, like cars and household furnishings. There are also much easier comps coming year-over-year because of high commodities Commodities Commodities are assets that are either naturally grown or occurring in the environment. Most commonly this includes precious metals such as gold, silver, and palladium.Beyond metals, commodities can also focus on agricultural or industrial goods that are central to manufacturing or other sectors. This includes crude oil, copper, wheat, and others.Relative to other assets, commodities are an extremely complex form of investment, with many similarities and differences to existing products.Commodit Commodities are assets that are either naturally grown or occurring in the environment. Most commonly this includes precious metals such as gold, silver, and palladium.Beyond metals, commodities can also focus on agricultural or industrial goods that are central to manufacturing or other sectors. This includes crude oil, copper, wheat, and others.Relative to other assets, commodities are an extremely complex form of investment, with many similarities and differences to existing products.Commodit Read this Term in Q42021/Q12022.

Goldman Sachs says today that they expect sharp declines in both core and headline CPI by the end of the year. They see core falling roughly to 'par' at 2.7% in Dec 2023 and headline at 2.5%.

For markets and the Fed, they're going to need to see a string of several months of 'par' or better to believe in a win against inflation.