WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his latest and says:
"Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage points" and whether to signal a smaller hike in December.
He highlights a divide in the Fed with some wanting to slow the pace of hikes and others worried that inflation isn't falling.
"Fed policy makers face a series of decisions. First, do they raise rates by a smaller half-point increment in December? And if so, how do they explain to the public that they aren’t backing down in their fight to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched?"
The market is 93% priced for a 75 bps hike with the remainder on 100 bps. But the market is taking a dovish read on this report as it highlights the potential for a slowdown later.
The US dollar has given back some gains and that shows:
- USD longs are a crowded trade
- Timiraos has a lot of credibility with markets
That said, the article doesn't read like any kind of signal to me. It highlights the divisions at the Fed and the data that officials will need before making a decision at the December FOMC. The content of the article is also less dovish than some of the headlines coming out of it.
Is it also possible the BOJ attempted to stomp on USD/JPY at the same time?