Another busy day on the economic calendar, but just like yesterday I'm not sure whether what we have today will move the needle in any significant way.
- Japanese inflation data during Asia-Pac was a nothing burger (as it usually is) and won't be enough to sway the BoJ's decision making.
- Later in the EU session we do have some preliminary inflation data due for France, Spain and Italy. This data would have been much more important had it not been for the political mess caused by Macron's snap election. With the recent upward tilt we've seen in EU inflation, a move higher would arguably be the bigger surprise, but I'm not sure how much weight markets will put on this with the election risks coming up.
- Later in the US session we have the latest batch of monthly PCE data (Fed's preferred measure of inflation). In recent months we've seen a few occasions with big reactions from the data, but I'm not sure whether a big deviation will grab as much attention this week. Both CPI and PPI data saw decent deviations, and the price reaction to both were short-lived. Right now it seems like the USD is driven more by potential quarter-end flows and of course the ongoing political risk premiums. Next week is probably the best chance of finding some good data-driven reactions from the USD with the next round of jobs numbers due.
- On the speaker side we have Fed's Barkin and Bowman (it's been a whole day since we last heard from Bowman so about time she gets on the wires again)
Today's economic calendar 28 June 2024
