After the comments from Powell yesterday, the implied odds of a 75 bps Fed hike on Dec 14 have fallen to just 9% but that number could bounce back if today's PCE inflation number is high and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are strong.
The PCE report is due out at the bottom of the hour and expected to show core prices up 5.0% y/y along with a 0.3% m/m gain. Included are consumption data that will be relevant as well and re expected to show a 0.8% rise.
This was an interesting comment from the Visa CFO yesterday on consumer spending:
"The simplest way to describe the trends through the 21st Nov is there was no change...if you look at the last week, 21 to 27, and compare it to last year, again, it's very stable. Really no change in trend".
For more, see the economic calendar.
