If you go by PredictIt, it looks like Peter Thiel might get his guy in the #2 position in the White House. Hurting Vance might be his previous comments about Trump, where he called him "cultural heroin" and "noxious". He also liked a tweet saying Trump committed “serial sexual assault.”
“I’m a Never Trump guy,” Vance said in an interview with Charlie Rose in 2016. “I never liked him.”
He later made amends and said “I just think the results [of Trump’s presidency] were so good…. I was critical of Trump in 2016, but he proved me wrong.” Trump endorsed him in his 2021 nomination for Ohio's senate seat and he won that election in the 2022 midterms.
Vance appears to be the favourite but traditional betting sites paint a different picture with North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum in the lead.
Marco Rubio remains a decent probability at both and it appears as though the decision hasn't leaked.
I strongly doubt that whoever he chooses won't be a market mover, though Bergum's relationship to the energy industry may help that industry.
