UBS says doesn't see reason for 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in Sept

The US CPI report from Wednesday, ICYMI:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to cool

Earlier:

• JP Morgan says the Fed has a green light for a 50bp rate cut in Sep. Here's the trigger.

• Morgan Stanley flag potential 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Septembr rate cut

UBS weigh in:

• The inflation data has been good enough to allow the Fed to start cutting rates in September
• But does not give them a reason to cut aggressively
• The decision whether to cut by 50 basis points instead of the usual 25 bps may come down to the August labor report
• Thursday’s retail sales data is another critical release

UBS says the main downside risk to their base case of a soft landing is a pullback in consumer spending.

The US retail sales data for July is due at 0830 US Eastern time, 1230 GMT:

• Retail sales m/m is expected at 0.3%, with the range of expectations spanning -0.1% to 0.9%
• Ex-autos m/m is expected at 0.1%, range -0.4% to 0.4%