UK June flash services PMI 53.7 vs 54.8 expected

• Prior 55.2
• Manufacturing PMI 46.2 vs 46.8 expected
• Prior 47.1
• Composite PMI 52.8 vs 53.6 expected
• Prior 54.0

Similar to the euro area, the UK economy also showed signs of slowing towards the end of Q2 but is at least still posting slight growth. The manufacturing sector continues to underperform while activity in the services sector is also dampened by rising price pressures, which marks a contrast seen in the former. S&P Global notes that:

“June's flash PMI survey indicates that the UK economy has lost momentum again after a brief growth spurt in the spring, and looks set to weaken further in the months ahead.

“Most notably, consumer spending on services, which was a core growth driver in the spring, is now showing signs of faltering as the reality of higher interest rates, the increased cost of living and gloom about the outlook sets in and overrides the brief boost to spending enjoyed from the pandemic tailwind. The manufacturing sector meanwhile continues to report recessionary conditions.

“One notable area of resilience in the economy is the labour market, with jobs growth accelerating in June as companies in the service sector continue to fill vacancies. While falling backlogs of work suggest this hiring trend could also fade in the coming months as the economy weakens, for now it is generating higher wage growth, in turn feeding through to still-elevated inflation pressures in the service sector. As such, the survey’s price gauges point to consumer price inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term remaining well above the Bank of England's target into 2024, which will add to the case for further interest rate hikes.

“Thus, while the June survey reveals the economy to be cooling as a result of higher interest rates, the stubbornly elevated price growth in the service sector suggests the Bank of England will consider its fight against inflation as still a work in progress. However, such rate hikes will clearly add further to the likelihood of a recession later in the year, which is looking increasingly inevitable as collateral damage in the fight against inflation.”