- Services PMI 50.0 vs 52.0 expected and 52.0 prior.
- Manufacturing PMI 48.6 vs 50.0 expected and 49.9 prior.
- Composite PMI 49.9 vs 51.8 expected and 51.8 prior.
Key Findings:
- Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) : 49.9 (Oct: 51.8). 13-month low.
- Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index (2) : 50.0 (Oct: 52.0). 13-month low.
- Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index (3) : 49.3 (Oct: 50.3). 9-month low.
- Flash UK Manufacturing PMI (4) : 48.6 (Oct: 49.9). 9-month low.
Comment:
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The first survey on the health of the economy after the Budget makes for gloomy reading. Businesses have reported falling output for the first time in just over a year while employment has now been cut for two consecutive months. Although only marginal, the downturns in output and hiring represent marked contrasts to the robust growth rates seen back in the summer and are accompanied by deepening concern about prospects for the year ahead.
Business optimism has slumped sharply since the General Election, dropping further in November to hit the lowest since late 2022. Companies are giving a clear 'thumbs down' to the policies announced in the Budget, especially the planned increase in employers' National Insurance contributions.
The November PMI is indicative of the economy slipping into a modest decline, with GDP dropping at a 0.1% quarterly rate, but the loss of confidence hints at worse to come – including further job losses –unless sentiment revives.
Encouragingly, inflation pressures have moderated further, with selling prices rising at the slowest rate seen this side of the pandemic. However, still-elevated rates of wage-related price and cost growth are being recorded in the service sector, potentially limiting scope for rate cuts among the more hawkish policymakers.”
