- Revised higher to +1.1%
- Retail sales +4.7% vs -1.3% y/y prior
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) 1.1% vs 1.6% m/m prior revised higher to 2.0%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) 2.7% vs -1.9% y/y prior
Increasing restrictions are really weighing on sentiment in the UK and the fears of Omicron are surely going to impact retail sales going forward. If cases keep doubling 2-3 days, then physical retail will decline. This reading shows a robust print for November, but restrictions implemented since then should start to weigh on retail sales going forward.
The BoE hiked rates yesterday, but that seems to be mainly on wage pressure. If higher wages equate to higher prices then inflation can become systemic in a flash. How we got there would be irrelevant once the prices start rising, so the BoE trying to head that danger off early.
Main points from ONS:
Retail sales volumes rose by 1.4% in November 2021 and were 7.2% higher than their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) February 2020 levels.
Non-food stores sales volumes rose by 2.0% in November 2021, because of growth in clothing stores (2.9%) and other non-food stores (2.8%) such as computer stores, toy stores and jewellery stores, with retailers noting strong trading related to Black Friday and in the lead up to Christmas.
Clothing stores sales volumes in November 2021 were above pre-coronavirus levels for the first time; 3.2% above their level in February 2020.
Automotive fuel sales volumes rose by 3.7% in November 2021 following some disruption to supplies in the previous two months; volumes were 1.9% below their February 2020 levels.
Food store sales volumes fell by 0.2% in November 2021; despite the fall in November, volumes were 3.2% above levels in February 2020.
The proportion of retail sales online fell to 26.9% in November 2021, its lowest proportion since March 2020 (22.6%) and a continuation of a falling trend since its peak in February 2021 (36.8%).
