- Prior +2.2%
- Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expected
- Prior +3.6%
The pound falls as the numbers here are softer than estimated, reaffirming stronger odds for the BOE to cut rates in November. GBP/USD falls from 1.3070 to a low of 1.3018 as headline annual inflation falls back under the 2% mark for the first time since April 2021.
Looking at the details, services inflation showed a noticeable drop from 5.9% to 5.6%. In core terms, the drop is even more drastic from 5.6% to 4.9%. That's a welcome development for the BOE surely.
Traders were pricing in ~80% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for next month coming into the data. So, this should see a bump higher to almost confirm that once the market opens later. But I wouldn't expect sterling losses to be overextended given the pricing odds were already quite significant before this.
The 1.3000 mark remains the key supportive region to watch for cable right now.
