UMich sentiment
UMich sentiment
  • Prior was 74.0
  • Current conditions 77.9 vs 75.1 prior
  • Expectations 70.2 vs 73.3 prior
  • 1-year inflation 3.3% vs 2.8% prior
  • 5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.0% prior

This is another body blow for stocks, those inflation numbers are a problem though they might reflect expectations about tariffs. This matches the highest since 2008.

UMich 5 year inflation expectations

This is an interesting chart from UMich suggesting that the rise in inflation expectations was all about tariffs.

UMich chart on major purchases