US 10-year yields fell as low as 3.79% in the aftermath of non-farm payrolls but have since seen a retracement to 3.86%. The bottom was just above the December low of 3.78%, a time that also saw considerable angst about a looming recession and rapid Fed rate cuts.
US 10s daily
The bond market has been at the forefront of the turn in markets this week and if yields bounce from here, there is some hope for USD/JPY and perhaps even equities.
The market pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC is aggressive. Powell was asked about that possibility after this week's FOMC and said:
Q: Is a 50-basis-point cut as a first cut at all likely or even on the table? Thank you.
POWELL: You know, I don't want to say and be really specific about what we're going to do but that's not something we're thinking about right now.
[Pauses, next reporter is called on]
Of course, I haven't made any decisions at all as of today.
Notably, the Fed blackout is now ending and we're going to see some commentary start to flood the wires.
