The 2018 high of 2.977% in US 2-year note yields just broke, which puts short-term rates at the highest since 2008.
Barclays is just out with a note forecasting the Fed will hike rates 75 basis points next week. That would go against what officials have said but it would be a good time for a surprise.
The Fed funds market is now pricing 3.16% Fed funds at year-end and if that's the case then 2s above 3% are inevitable. At the same time, there's gotta be demand for a guaranteed 3% for two years in a market like this.
Further out the curve, inversion looms again. US 10s held the line early but are now up 9.7 bps to 3.138%.
