US ADP November employment +127K vs +200K expected

• Prior was +239K
• Forecasts ranged from 150-241K
• Annual pay +7.6% vs +7.7% prior
• Goods-producing -86K vs -8K prior
• Service-providing +213K vs +247K prior

This was the lowest since January 2021 and the drop in goods-producing jobs is a strong hint that the slowdowns we've seen in the manufacturing surveys are finally hitting the real economy and that inventory re-stocking is done.

"Turning points can be hard to capture in the labor market, but our data suggest that Federal Reserve tightening is having an impact on job creation and pay gains,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “In addition, companies are no longer in hyper-replacement mode. Fewer people are quitting and the post-pandemic recovery is stabilizing.”

The US dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term edged lower on the data. A similar kind of disappointment on Friday in the non-farm payrolls Nonfarm Payrolls Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the single biggest monthly economic news indicator released out of the United States, usually on the first Friday of every month. Reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP measures the increase or decrease in the number of people employed during the previous month, except for those working in the farming and agriculture industry.The NFP can also be referred to as an Employment Change, and is the most anticipated monthly report. As it's released at the begin Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the single biggest monthly economic news indicator released out of the United States, usually on the first Friday of every month. Reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP measures the increase or decrease in the number of people employed during the previous month, except for those working in the farming and agriculture industry.The NFP can also be referred to as an Employment Change, and is the most anticipated monthly report. As it's released at the begin Read this Term report would solidify expectations for a 50 bps Fed hike.