- Prior was +208K (revised to +192K)
- Forecasts ranged from 150-230K
- Annual pay up +7.7% vs +7.8% prior
This survey has been relaunched and is no longer designed to predict non-farm payrolls . Instead, its aim is to offer a corrolary survey of the US jobs picture.
The US dollar has strengthened on the data with USD/JPY up to 147.30 from 147.10 with 10-20 climbs elsewhere. S&P 500 futures fell to -5 from +1.
The Fed won't like to see the uptick in jobs growth in October, especially after yesterday's strength in job openings. That said, Fed members know that employment is a lagging indicator so I doubt it changes their messaging about where rates will be in March 2023.
"This is a really strong number given the maturity of the economic recovery but the hiring was not broad-based," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Goods producers, which are sensitive to interest rates, are pulling back, and job changers are commanding smaller pay gains. While we're seeing early signs of Fed-driven demand destruction, it's affecting only certain sectors of the labor market."
Along those lines, 210,000 of the jobs were in leisure and hospitality with most other categories declining.
Change by Industry Sector:
Goods-producing: -8,000
- Natural resources/mining 11,000
- Construction 1,000
- Manufacturing -20,000
Service-providing: 247,000
- Trade/transportation/utilities 84,000
- Information -17,000
- Financial activities -10,000
- Professional/business services -14,000
- Education/health services -5,000
- Leisure/hospitality 210,000
- Other services -1,000
Regoinally, virtually all the jobs were created in the Pacific area with the midwest and south showing job losses.
