US April non-farm payrolls +253K vs +180K expected

• Prior was +236K(revised to +165K)
• Two-month net revision -149K
• Unemployment rate 3.4% vs 3.6% expected
• Prior unemployment rate 3.5%
• Participation rate 62.6% vs 62.6% prior
• U6 underemployment rate 6.6% vs 6.7% prior
• Average hourly earnings +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% expected
• Average hourly earnings +4.4% y/y vs +4.2% expected
• Average weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 expected
• Change in private payrolls +230K vs +160K expected
• Change in manufacturing payrolls +11K vs -5K expected
• Household survey +139K vs +577K prior
• Birth-death adjustment+378K vs -29K prior

This is undoubtedly hawkish and puts the Fed in a real bind. The Fed wants to pause and may soon even need to cut but the jobs market isn't cooperating. Now, jobs are certainly a lagging indicator but 3.4% unemployment is extraordinarily tight and this is the 13th straight month of non-farm payrolls Nonfarm Payrolls Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the single biggest monthly economic news indicator released out of the United States, usually on the first Friday of every month. Reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP measures the increase or decrease in the number of people employed during the previous month, except for those working in the farming and agriculture industry.The NFP can also be referred to as an Employment Change, and is the most anticipated monthly report. As it's released at the begin Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the single biggest monthly economic news indicator released out of the United States, usually on the first Friday of every month. Reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP measures the increase or decrease in the number of people employed during the previous month, except for those working in the farming and agriculture industry.The NFP can also be referred to as an Employment Change, and is the most anticipated monthly report. As it's released at the begin Read this Term beating the consensus estimate.

The US dollar US Dollar The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel The US dollar, (symbol $, code USD) is the fiat currency of the United States of America (USD) and the most widely traded currency globally. It was introduced into the US in the late 18th Century, with paper notes not being distributed until the following century. The US dollar, also informally known as the greenback, is the world’s most foremost reserve currency, due in large part to the importance of the US economy on the world stage. Once backed by gold (in the 1900’s), the USD is now a purel Read this Term is higher on the headlines, including 60 pips in USD/JPY and about 30 pips against the euro and pound, which is an indication that it's not enough to change the Fed trajectory. Meanwhile, bonds are reacting more forcefully with US 2-year yields now up 17 bps on the day, though only about half of that is since the report.