ISM manufacturing
- Prior was 46.8
- Prices paid 54.0 versus 52.9 prior
- Employment 46.0 versus 43.4 prior
- New orders 44.6 versus 47.4 prior (lowest since May 2023)
- Production 44.8 versus 45.9 prior
- Supplier deliveries 50.5 versus 52.6 prior
- Inventories 50.3 versus 44.5 prior
- Backlog of orders 43.6 versus 41.7 prior
- New export orders 48.6 versus 49.0 prior
- Imports 49.6 versus 48.6 prior
The new orders number is dreadful and underscores the forward-looking weakness in the manufacturing survey from S&P Global
New orders
Comments in the report:
- “A noticeable slowdown in business activity. Staffing and production rationalization has been triggered. Previous optimism about future growth has been dashed.” [Chemical Products]
- “Backlog has dropped in half as invoicing remains strong, but orders have slowed significantly. Hoping to see orders pick back up for the fourth quarter and into 2025 but expect third quarter to remain slow for incoming orders.” [Transportation Equipment]
- “After a slow start and lower year-over-year sales volume during the first half of the year, we are now seeing a mild increase in year-over-year sales volume, along with more steady growth.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
- “Business outlook is good. Recovery from the electronics slowdown is strong for the second half of the year.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
- “New order intake is sluggish at best. Interestingly, even though orders are down, inquiries are up. Customers have indicated capital has been approved for equipment purchases, but they were directed to put projects on hold until the fourth quarter of 2024. This indicates the uncertainty around the election. We anticipate a strong end of the year, with a rise in backlog going into 2025.” [Machinery]
- “Our order levels are on a slow, steady decline; it looks like the trend will continue through the end of the year. We are downsizing through attrition and not hiring backfills, but there have been no layoffs to date. The bright spot is a few customer programs have helped increase orders for parts, resulting in some production areas to be very busy while others have little work. Redeploying people where we can.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
- “New orders continue to be strong, and inventories are slightly down as a result. Supplier lead times seem to be creeping back up in certain categories.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
- “Business is cooling down, and we don’t expect a rebound until after the election is over. As we build our 2025 budget, we continue to have deep concerns about the added environmental costs on energy.” [Paper Products]
- “Order book remains strong for now. We are preparing for a slowdown in U.S. auto sales. We are running overtime to keep pace, as hiring hourly employees has been difficult. Some walk off the job within hours because they cannot handle factory work.” [Primary Metals]
- “High interest rates are curtailing consumer spending on large discretionary spending for furniture, cabinetry, flooring and decorative trim, which has affected our industry sales potential. At the same time, pent-up demand seems to be growing for housing and remodeling. Interest rate cuts may not happen soon enough to have an impact this year.” [Wood Products]
