- Prior month 103.3 revised to 105.6
- Consumer confidence 98.7 vs 104.0 estimate
- Present Situation Index 124.3 vs. 134.4 last month
- Expectations Index 81.7 vs 82.5 last month.
In August, the expectations index was above 80 for the second consecutive month. This month's expectations at 81.7 makes it three months in a row about the 80 level. Generally speaking a reading below the a level usually signals a recession and
Nevertheless, the consumer confidence is a big miss. There is a negative reaction in the US stock market with the NASDAQ index now down -52 or-0.29%. The S&P index is also lower by -10.8 points or -0.19%.
Dana Peterson, chief economist at the conference Board said
“Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income."
Peterson added:
“The deterioration across the Index’s main components likely reflected consumers concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings—even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages. The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months remained low but there was a slight uptick in the percentage of consumers believing the economy was already in recession.”
