- Surface temperatures are above average in the west-central Pacific ocean
- La Nina watch now in effect, favored to develop during July-Sept (65% chance) and persist into winter 2024-25
- Temp outlook favors enhanced probabilities of above normal temp reaching 60-70% are found over the Gulf coast
We are just out of the warmer El Nino phase and now in a neutral, intermediate phase, that is expected to turn to the colder La Nina towards the end of the year (warmer in the US but globally colder). One of the consequences of this transition will probably be a very active hurricane season.
Globally, 2023 was extremely hot and the hope is that it was an outlier but if it persists through 2024, then climate models might be underestimating global warming, with disastrous consequences.
I believe the chief scientific quest of this decade will be figuring out what are the best ways of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It would be nice if the same amount of capital was chasing that answer as is chasing Nvidia's H100 chips.
