US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are due on Thursday, January 11 at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time.
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Deutsche Bank
- expect headline CPI (0.26%) to come in roughly in line with core (0.28%) m/m
- would equate to 3.9% and 3.3% y/y
- core is not yet breaking through 3% on the downside
- 3m and 6m annualised rates are also likely to stay slightly above this mark
RBC:
- US CPI growth to show further signs of moderation in December, notwithstanding a likely tick higher in the y/y rate of headline price growth to 3.2% from 3.1% a month earlier
- that small increase should be entirely explained by a smaller y/y decline in energy prices
- we expect y/y price growth in core (excluding food and energy) products to slow to 3.8% from 4.0% on a more ‘normal’ looking 0.2% monthly (seasonally adjusted) increase from November
- With price growth trending in the right direction and signs that economic growth is slowing, the Fed is widely expected to pivot to interest rate cuts in the first half of this year. Our own forecast assuming the first decrease comes in Q2.
