The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected?
- October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.
- YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%. A change of 0.0% will fall out of the YoY calculation this month.
- Core CPI projected to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY, matching the previous month. The forecast range is 0.2 to 0.3% MoM and 3.2 to 3.4% Y/Y. A year ago, a gain of 0.2% falls out of the calculation.
The US PPI will be released on Thursday with the expectations of 0.2% for the MoM headline and 0.3% for the core measure.
Fed's Barkin this morning on inflation kept it simple saying::
- Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.
Kashkari had more to say about inflation today with different influences. He said.
- Uncertainty exists around the impact of new government policies on inflation.
- A one-time tariff increase is transitory but could become a sustained issue if it escalates, introducing inflation risks.
- Immigration policy changes could have a significant effect on inflation, but the outcome is uncertain.
- Inflation from new leases will take a couple of years to work through the system.
- Housing inflation is expected to return to normal levels, but it may take a year or two.
- If inflation surprises to the upside before December, it may affect policy decisions.
- Current long-term yield increases don’t seem to reflect heightened inflation expectations.
- Higher productivity could suggest a higher neutral rate, potentially influencing future rate cuts.
