US durable goods for November -2.1% versus -0.6% expected

• Prior month
• Durable goods orders -2.1% versus -0.6% expected. Prior month was revised to +0.7% from 1.0% from 1.0%
• The fall in durable goods was the first after three consecutive monthly increases of 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.7%.
• Ex transportation 0.2% vs 0.0% expected. Last month 0.1% revised from 0.5%
• Ex defense -2.6% vs. 0.4% last month (revised from 0.8%)
• Non defense Cap ex-Air 0.2% vs 0.0% expected last month 0.3% (revised from 0.7%).
• transportation equipment was down for the first month after three consecutive monthly increases. It fell -6.3%
• Shipments of manufacturing durable goods have been up for 18 the last 19 months. The increase 0.2% following a 0.4% increase in October
• Shipments of transportation equipment shipments have been up 13 the last 14 months. They increase by 0.8%. Given the shipments declined this month, one would expect a softening of that trend going forward at least temporarily
• unfilled orders fell came in virtually unchanged. Unfilled orders have increased for 26 consecutive months
• unfilled transportation equipment fell for the first time after 18 consecutive monthly increases by -0.1%
• inventories which have been up for 22 consecutive months, increased by 0.1% versus 0.1% increase last month

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The headline durable goods data is much worse than expected but if you take out the impact of transportation, it was a little better. Digging further, if you took out defense spending it was much worse. There was a lot of big moves in the pieces it seems with defense spending up, while transportation was a drag.

Durable goods orders are a measure of the demand for long-lasting goods, such as appliances, vehicles, and machinery. These orders are placed with manufacturers and are an indicator of future business investment and consumer spending.

An increase in durable goods orders is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, as it indicates that businesses and consumers are confident about the future and are willing to make long-term purchases. On the other hand, a decline in orders may suggest a slowdown in economic activity and reduced business investment.

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