The US EIA lowered its demand growth forecasts for this year and next by 50k bpd and 40k bpd respectively. It now sees 2023 growth at 1.76 mbpd and it sees an additional 1.32 mbpd rise next year.
It's a fool's errand to try to forecast oil to that degree of accuracy.
In any case, WTI crude is down $1.43 today as the market re-assesses the odds of a broader Middle East war involving Iran.
On the supply side, the EIA bumped its 2023 US crude production estimate to +1.01mbpd from +0.87 mbpd while lowering its 2024 estimate to +200k from +380k. The net is lower production in 2024 than previously thought, which isn't a surprise given the rig count.
