New York Fed
New York Fed manufacturing survey
  • Prior 1.1

Details:

  • New orders -19.9 versus 3.3 last month.
  • Shipments -12.3 versus 13.4 last month.
  • Prices paid 25.2 versus 16.7 last month
  • Employment -1.4 versus 4.7 last month.
  • Prices received 12.6 versus 3.9 last month.
  • Inventories -9.7 versus -10.8 last month.

Six-month forward

  • Six-month outlook 19.9 versus 14.3 last month
  • new orders 28.1 versus 11.0 last month.
  • Shipments 29.6 versus 12.0 last month.
  • Prices paid 37.9 versus 26.5 last month.
  • Prices received 18.4 verse 22.5 last month.
  • Number of employees 24.9 versus 13.2 last month

Not a good report, but the data can be up and down volatile as evidenced by the chart above. However, the mix with the new orders, shipments, and employment all falling, while prices paid and prices received moving higher is not a good mix..

A bulleted review from the NY Fed summary:

  • Business Activity in New York State (August 2023)

    • Declined according to Empire State Manufacturing Survey.
    • General business conditions index dropped twenty points to -19.0.
    • Significant decrease in new orders and shipments.
    • Delivery times remained consistent; inventories decreased.
    • Employment levels stable; average workweek shortened.
    • Increase in input and selling prices.
    • Capital spending plans showed slight improvement.
    • Increased optimism about the six-month outlook.

  • Detailed Insights

    • 16% of respondents saw improved conditions; 35% saw worsening conditions.
    • New orders index fell twenty-three points to -19.9.
    • Shipments index decreased twenty-six points to -12.3.
    • Unfilled orders index remained negative at -6.8.
    • Inventories index continued to be negative at -9.7.
    • Delivery times index was 1.9, indicating stability.

  • Labor and Prices

    • Employee index was -1.4, indicating stable employment.
    • Average workweek index decreased to -10.7.
    • Both input and selling price indexes increased, suggesting a modest rise in price growth.

  • Future Expectations

    • Index for future business conditions rose six points to 19.9.
    • Increased optimism for future conditions.
    • Expectations for significant growth in new orders, shipments, and employment.
    • Anticipated rise in input prices.
    • Capital spending index increased eleven points to 13.6.