Yikes...The spigot from manufacturing in NY was quickly turned off.
This reading is the lowest since May 2020 at the height of the pandemic with.
- Prior month -14.5 (the expectations last month was for a gain of 2.0). The decline last month was the lowest since August
Details:
- New orders -49.4 vs -11.3 last month
- Shipments -31.3 vs -6.4 last month
- Prices paid 13.2 vs 16.7 last month
- Prices Received 9.5 vs +11.5 last month
- Employment -6.9 vs -8.4 last month
- Average Employee workweek -6.1 vs -2.4 last month
- Unfilled orders -24.2 vs -24.0 last month
- Delivery times -8.4 versus -15.6 last month.
- Inventories -7.4 vs -5.2 last month
The 6-month forward index:
- General business condition 18.8 versus 12.1 last month
- new orders 25.2 versus 11.3 last month
- shipments 24.6 versus 15.8 last month
- prices paid 40.0 versus 25.0 last month
- prices received 32.6 versus 27.1 last month
- employment 16.8 versus 10.9 last month
- average employee workweek 14.7 versus 10.4 last month
- unfilled orders 16.8 versus 5.2 last month
- delivery times 11.6 versus -1.1 last month
- inventories 5.3 versus 9.4 last month
- capital expenditures 13.7 versus 4.2 last month
- technology spending 9.5 versus 10.3 last month
“New York manufacturing activity fell sharply in January following a significant decline in December. While the survey’s headline index has fluctuated in recent months, this outsized drop suggests January was a difficult month for New York manufacturers, with employment and hours worked also contracting.” ~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed
Looking at the chart the level is the lowest since the pandemic and also the 2nd lowest since 2001. It seems unbelievable. The markets are a bit skeptical it seems. US yields are lower from earlier levels but they are still higher on the day. 2-year yield is at 4.5% +4.8 basis points. Yield is at 3.995% of 4.6 basis points.
US stocks or down but what far from earlier levels:
- S&P futures are implying -13.83 points
- NASDAQ futures are implying -47.67 point decline
- Dow futures are implying a decline of -54 points
