- Prior quarter 0.9% (was expecting 1.0%)
- Employment cost index for Q1 2024 .2% vs 1.0% expected
- Wages 1.1% versus 0.9% last month
- Benefits 1.1% versus 0.7% last month
YoY the numbers are lower from a year ago but still elevated:
- Overall compensation costs increased by 4.2% for the year ending in March 2024, compared to a 4.8% increase in the previous year (March 2023).
- Wages and salaries rose by 4.4% for the year ending in March 2024, down from a 5.0% increase in the year ending in March 2023.
- Benefit costs increased by 3.7% for the year ending in March 2024, compared to a 4.5% increase in the year ending in March 2023
The employment cost index is seen inside the Fed as the highest quality measure of compensation growth. As such this is a more hawkish report. US yields are reacting accordingly with a move to the upside.
- 2-year yield +5.4 basis points.
- 5-year yield +6.2 basis points
- 10 year yield +5.0 basis points
Looking at the US stocks in premarket trading, futures or implying declines:
- S&P index is down -22 point.
- Dow Industrial Average averages down about -143 points and
- NASDAQ is down -88 points
September Fed rate cut is now at 50-50 as the markets continue to push out Fed cuts (or lack thereof).
