This is low-tier aggregate data but highlights the trend lower.
“The ETI fell in June, continuing the downward trajectory observed since the measure peaked in March 2022,” said Will Baltrus, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “June’s ETI downtick signals employment could fall in the second half of 2024. However, the index remains above its prepandemic level, and payrolls growth remains healthy, albeit at a reduced pace compared to the outsized gains experienced during the pandemic recovery. While June’s ETI suggests an aggregate reduction in employment ahead, we anticipate the labor market will only cool modestly. Indeed, as long as companies are willing to retain workers, net nonfarm payrolls are likely to remain positive.
