ICYMI from the US Energy Information Administration's ' Short-term Energy Outlook" released earlier in the week. They expect US oil production to slow for the coming year:
- We estimate that U.S. crude oil production reached an all-time high in December of more than 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d).
- However, crude oil production fell to 12.6 million b/d in January because of shut-ins related to cold weather.
- We forecast production will return to almost 13.3 million b/d in February but then decrease slightly through the middle of 2024 and will not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025.
EIA crude forecast:
- Brent crude oil spot price increased in January, averaging $80 per barrel (b) because of heightened uncertainty about global oil shipments as attacks to vessels in the Red Sea intensified.
- Although we expect crude oil prices will rise into the mid-$80/b range in the coming months, we expect downward price pressures will emerge in 2Q24 as global oil inventories generally increase through the rest of our forecast.
- However, ongoing risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East create the potential for crude oil prices to be higher than our forecast. U.S. crude oil production.
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