- Prior week 249K (revised to 250K)
- initial jobless claims 233K versus 240K estimate.
- 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 240,750 vs 238,250 last week
- Continuing claims 1.875M versus 1.870M expected
- Prior week continuing jobless claims 1.877M (revised to 1.869m)
- 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.862M vs 1.855M last week
There was a decrease of 17K from the previous week's revised level, suggesting the pop was more about the hurricane than underlying trends. While the drop in new claims is positive, the rise in ongoing claims suggests some workers are taking longer to find new employment.
There was some real angst about this data given the recent rise but this has put the genie back in the bottle and that's led to a pop in the US dollar.
Economist Parker Ross dug into the numbers and highlights some of the special factors and how they may not have completely reversed:
Michigan's auto plant retooling effect shrank from 8k excess initial claims last week to 1.5k during the week ending Aug 3. Similarly, excess initial claims in Texas went from ~11k to ~5.5k, meaning there is decent downside potential for next week's report as well.
