The ISM manufacturing index has been in contraction the last 13 months
- the consensus expected today is 47.1
- it came in weaker than expected in November at 46.7
Its due at 10am US Eastern time. Note the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are due later in the session, at 2pm.
The range of estimates for the headline number is 45.6 to 48.1. A result outside of this range should prompt larger market moves:
- lower than 45.5 will fuel chatter of Fed rate cuts sooner and deeper, which should assist risk trades
- on the other hand, a result above 48.1 will prompt chatter of cuts not coming as quickly and as deeply as expected
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Goldman Sachs are looking for 46.9:
- reflecting the rebound in East Asian industrial activity but weakness in other business surveys
- Our GS manufacturing tracker fell 0.9pt to 49.1
