The New York Fed yesterday released its quarterly survey of the employment market and there was a notable softening.
- Job seekers jump to 28.4% in July 2024, highest since March 2014
- The increase was most pronounced among respondents older than age 45, those without a college degree, and those with an annual household income less than $60,000.
- Job satisfaction down across wages, benefits, and promotion opportunities
- Unemployment expectations hit series high at 4.4%
The expected wage of job seekers also fell 3.2% y/y, with workers now anticipating offers around $65,272, down from $67,416 a year ago. This decline in wage expectations could signal softer labor market conditions ahead.
Job satisfaction also dropped, particularly among women, non-college grads, and lower-income households.
It's not all bad news though, increased job seeking and a higher transition rate could indicate a dynamic jobs market with more opportunities. The reservation wage also rose from a year ago and the expected likelihood of receiving a job offer rose to 22.2% from 18.7% a year ago. This suggests optimism about job prospects.
On net though, falling job satisfaction and wage expectations are negative.
