Employment data from the US has shown a resilient labour market, freeing traders up to focus on inflation data. The resilience is expected to continue in today's data:
The data is due at 230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time.
Snippet via Bank of America:
- The May employment report is likely to show a healthy but better-balanced labor market.
- Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 200k, a 25k increase from April.
- Strong hiring is likely to result in the unemployment rate edging down a tenth to 3.8%. and wage growth would likely remain at 3.9% yoy.
- In short, the report should signal strong labor demand and little concern of an economic slowdown, in our view.
More broadly:
- We think strong employment growth in laggard industries can persist this year, albeit to a lesser extent.
- We expect payrolls to increase by around 170k per month in 2024.
- Job growth should then slow to an average of 100k in 2025.
- We also expect the participation rate to be rangebound at 62.6-62_7% across our forecast horizon. As a result. we only see a small and gradual increase in the unemployment rate, with a peak of 4.1% in 4Q 2025
